Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi drops another bombshell. PHOTO | BMS
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi drops another bombshell. PHOTO | BMS
Economist and Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi urge Raila Odinga to rethink his political course if he wants to be the President of Kenya. He also advises Western leaders that its until they are united that's when they can talk of the presidency because politics is just numbers.

ODM leader Raila Odinga has not fully learned the art of the people in Mt. Kenya. History tells that Mt. Kenya votes for their own or someone closer to them.

The closeness here I mean benefits. The regions allied to Central include; Rift Valley, Eastern, and Coast. If anybody wants to be a President and needs support from Mt. Kenya then it's easier if he/she is from these 3 regions.

The main reasons are property and businesses. There are more GEMA communities settled in these regions. 

Coast region, especially in Lamu, Kilifi, and Mombasa counties, have a bigger number of GEMA landlords, businesses and Inter Marriages. A third of Taita Taveta's land belongs to the GEMA nation.

Rift Valley is the region with more GEMA stakeholders. Counties like Kajiado, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu among others have more stakeholders from Mt. Kenya than other counties in different regions.

Eastern region has more GEMA properties than the Coast region. Inter-Marriage also high in this region.  From Embu, Machakos and Makueni counties have seen an increased number of people from Mt. Kenya.

It's more likely that a President flagbearer from these regions has upper hand support.

In 2002 Raila Odinga supported "Kibaki Tosha" only to leave him in teargas in 2013. The Raila-Kibaki MOU was not honoured. What will be the difference if President Uhuru will not honour handshake in 2022?

The truth is if Raila Odinga wants to be in government then he has to choose three options; Through coup or Make someone else President and he becomes prime minister or  Making someone else President, he becomes the deputy President and uses impeachment backdoor, death or signing a resignation MOU.

Western Region has the potential but until they are united. Then engage other regions especially the regions above.

But for now Nyanza and Western do not have the potential of producing a President in Kenya. The hypothesis of the tyranny of numbers may take a different shape in the 2022 elections

Post a Comment

What is your say on this

Previous Post Next Post