El Nino rainfall

After three years in a row of below-average rainfall, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning about the potential occurrence of El Nino in the months ahead.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), "a warmer El Nino event might emerge in the coming months following three consecutive years of an exceptionally obstinate and lengthy La Nina." This La Nina had an impact on the rainfall and temperature trends in many regions of the globe.

In a press release, the organisation that is the leading authority on weather, climate, and water within the United Nations System stated that even though a return of El Nino is thought to be likely, this will be preceded by a period of ENSO-neutral conditions with a 90% probability during the months of March to May. The statement was made by the organisation.

Although they are relatively low in the first half of the year (15% in April–June), the odds of an El Nino event occurring steadily grow to 35% in May–July.

Long-range projections for the months of June through August suggest a substantially greater likelihood (55%) of El Nio emerging; however, these forecasts are susceptible to the considerable errors associated with predictions made at this time of year (the so-called "spring predictability barrier").

"The first La Nina of the 21st century to have triple-dip conditions is at last reaching its conclusion." According to Prof. Petteri Taalas, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the cooling influence of La Nina temporarily placed a brake on growing world temperatures, despite the fact that the most recent eight-year period was the hottest on record.


According to Professor Taalas, "If we do now enter an El Nino phase, this is likely to spark another jump in global temperatures." (If we now enter an El Nino phase.)

In addition, the WMO said that although 2016 is now the hottest year on record as a result of the interaction between El Nino and climate change, there is a 93% chance that at least one year up to 2026 will be the hottest ever recorded.

The current La Nina cycle started in September 2020, with a lull in its occurrence throughout the boreal summer of 2021.

The phenomenon known as "La Nina" is characterised by widespread decreases in surface water temperatures throughout a vast portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, in conjunction with shifts in the tropical air circulation. In areas that are impacted by it, the weather and climate tend to be altered in the opposite way as El Nino is.

There has been a correlation established between La Nina and the prolonged drought that has affected significant sections of South America and the Greater Horn of Africa, as well as the above-average rainfall that has been seen in Southeast Asia and Australasia.

The latest regional climate forecast that was released on February 22 issued a warning that the disastrous situation in the Horn of Africa would become much worse since the next rainy season from March to May is anticipated to be poor.

The El Nino and La Nina climatic occurrences are naturally occurring phenomena. Nevertheless, this is happening against the backdrop of living thing climate change, which is driving up global temperatures, altering patterns of seasonal rainfall, and making our weather more intense.

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