Kenya’s export processing zones face a dire threat tonight as a key US trade agreement expires, putting over 65,000 jobs in jeopardy. This development hits hard in regions reliant on duty-free exports to America, where apparel and textile manufacturing thrive.
With the deal’s end, Kenyan firms exporting to the US without tariffs now brace for steep duties, potentially slashing competitiveness and triggering widespread layoffs in EPZ job sectors.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, has been a lifeline for Kenya’s economy since 2000, enabling seamless access to the massive US market. Under this pact, Kenyan goods, like clothing, footwear, and agricultural products, flowed tariff-free, fuelling growth in export processing zones across the country.
Cities like Nairobi and Mombasa host bustling EPZs where thousands of workers, mostly women in garment factories, assemble products destined for American shelves.
But as midnight strikes on September 30, 2025, that era closes, leaving manufacturers scrambling for alternatives. President Donald Trump’s staunch protectionist stance amplifies the crisis.
His repeated mantra that nothing free enters the US unless made there shows a broader push for domestic production, as President Trump has long championed “America First” policies, arguing that fair trade demands reciprocity.
For Kenya, this means apparel exports once shipped duty-free could now face up to 32% tariffs, making them unviable against rivals like Vietnam or Bangladesh, and the industry leaders warn that without swift renewal talks, EPZ factories might shutter lines, leading to immediate job losses in Kenya’s vital manufacturing hubs.
The ripple effects extend beyond factory floors. Over 65,000 EPZ jobs in Kenya support families, local suppliers, and even rural communities through remittances, and a sudden halt in duty-free exports could spike unemployment rates, already hovering around 5% nationally, and strain social services in EPZ-dependent areas.
Small-scale farmers supplying cotton or leather to these zones might see orders dry up, while logistics firms handling shipments to US ports face revenue drops, with the economists predicting a 2-3% dip in Kenya’s GDP growth if the trade deal’s end lingers unresolved, hitting hardest those in low-skill assembly roles.
Kenya’s government isn’t standing idle, as officials in Nairobi are lobbying Washington for an extension, highlighting mutual benefits like job creation on both sides as the US imports billions in Kenyan textiles annually, supporting American brands while boosting African development.
Yet Trump’s administration shows little flexibility, prioritising tariffs to revive American manufacturing, while Kenyan exporters are pivoting too—exploring markets in Europe via the EU Economic Partnership Agreement or ramping up intra-African trade under the AfCFTA.
Still, these shifts take time, and tonight’s deadline leaves little buffer for EPZ workers facing uncertainty. As for the garment zones of Athi River, one of Kenya’s largest EPZs, the mood is tense, and seamstresses and cutters, who’ve honed skills over years of duty-free export booms, now eye résumés and side hustles.
Training programmes for upskilling in sustainable fashion or digital logistics offer glimmering hope, but they can’t offset the immediate pain of potential layoffs while community leaders urge youth to diversify into tech or agribusiness, yet the allure of stable EPZ jobs, with steady wages and health benefits, remains unmatched for many.
As the sun sets on this pivotal day, the end of US duty-free access spotlights the fragility of global trade ties, and for Kenya’s over 65,000 EPZ workers, tonight isn’t just a deadline; it’s a crossroads.