The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is currently facing significant internal divisions regarding whether to support or oppose President William Ruto in the 2027 Kenyan general elections.
Support for President William Ruto
Some ODM leaders have openly expressed support for Ruto’s re-election. Notably, former ODM chairman John Mbadi has thrown his weight behind Ruto, indicating a possible shift in loyalty, especially if Raila Odinga is not in the race.
This faction believes that aligning with Ruto could bring benefits to their regions, particularly Nyanza and Western Kenya, where ODM has significant support.
President Ruto has hinted at a potential deal with ODM, suggesting that a coalition could be in the works for the 2027 elections. This is supported by the inclusion of several ODM figures in Ruto’s ‘broad-based’ government, which might indicate a strategic political alignment or at least a temporary truce.
Opposition to President William Ruto
Conversely, there’s substantial resistance within ODM against supporting Ruto. ODM’s secretary-general, Edwin Sifuna, has stated emphatically that even with ODM’s support, Ruto could still lose in 2027, emphasizing that popularity, not just political alliances, will determine the election’s outcome.
This view is echoed by some ODM leaders who argue that the party should field its own candidate, maintaining its position as an opposition force.
Governors like Simba Arati and Abdulswamad Nassir have publicly stated that ODM will have its candidate on the ballot in 2027, distancing the party from any perceived coalition with UDA. This group emphasizes strengthening the party to capture power independently.
Internal Party wrangles
The party seems split, with some members criticizing the move towards Ruto as diluting ODM’s opposition role, while others see it as pragmatic politics for gaining governmental influence.
The debate is also influenced by Raila Odinga’s potential run for the African Union Commission chairmanship, which could alter ODM’s strategy if he steps away from Kenyan politics.
The situation has led to public disagreements and strategic positioning within the party, with some leaders advocating for a clear opposition stance to maintain the party’s identity and voter base.
Posts on X highlight a public discourse where opinions vary widely. Some believe that ODM’s support for Ruto might be inevitable if Raila secures the AU position, while others see this as a betrayal of ODM’s foundational principles.
There’s scepticism about the motives behind aligning with Ruto, with some viewing it as an opportunistic move for personal or regional gains rather than ideological alignment.
Currently, Raila Odinga’s party, ODM, is in a dilemma and multifaceted, involving ideological, strategic, and personal political considerations.
The party’s direction will likely hinge on internal negotiations, the outcome of Raila Odinga’s AU bid, and how individual leaders position themselves in Kenyan politics leading up to 2027.
