Ruto was set to inherit ODM zones in 2027, according to the Star forecast, which predicts a seismic shift in Kenyan politics, with President William Ruto potentially sweeping former opposition strongholds in Nyanza and beyond if the Orange Democratic Movement formally endorses him for a second term.
A thorough study of voters released on Sunday by The Star newspaper, using the 2022 voter list estimated to include 22 million voters, shows that Ruto could win 30 to 35 counties completely, including areas in Luo Nyanza that usually support ODM, if the party’s National Executive Council approves a coalition agreement.
The projection has disrupted Azimio circles and sparked accusations of premature coronation from rivals already sharpening knives for the 2027 race.
The Star’s county-by-county breakdown paints a picture of a dramatically realigned political map.
Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza fortress in the Rift Valley and Mount Kenya remains unshaken, with analysts giving him near-total sweeps in 18 counties from Turkana to Nyeri.
The game-changer lies in the “inheritance clause” the death of Raila Odinga added the ODM’s NEC concern follows the growing chorus to back Ruto for “national stability,”, pollsters see the president adding up to eight counties in Nyanza, Western, and Coast that voted Azimio in 2022.
“It’s not conquest; it’s succession,” one senior Star source explained over coffee in Westlands. “Raila built those zones on personality.”
When the personality exits stage left, the structures are up for grabs.” Dennis Onyango, Raila’s long-time spokesman turned influential columnist, fuelled the fire in a weekend op-ed bluntly titled “Why ODM Should Endorse Ruto”.
Writing that “continuity beats chaos”, Onyango argued the party risks becoming “a museum piece” without Raila and should secure cabinet seats and development projects by boarding the Ruto train early.
His piece drew predictable fury from diehards who branded him as “the undertaker of ODM”.
Yet quieter NEC members admit privately that youth desertion and donor fatigue have left the party cash-strapped and morale low, making Ruto’s state machinery look increasingly attractive.
Opposition remnants are scrambling to counter the narrative. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, speaking in Machakos on Sunday, dismissed the projections as “ gossip dressed as science,” insisting Ukambani’s four counties remain Azimio bedrock.
Meanwhile, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, now touring Central Kenya with a “Mount Kenya Unity” message, told a Nyeri crowd the newspaper had “forgotten who owns the mountain.”
Internal polls leaked to this reporter show Gachagua pulling 42 per cent in a hypothetical Central-only presidential vote, enough to play spoiler if he bolts to a new outfit.
Nairobi and the six Coast counties emerge as the true battlegrounds, with Gen-Z turnout and Muslim voter cohesion cited as wild cards that could swing 3 million votes either way.
One viral thread calculated that if ODM delivers even half of its 2022 5.6 million votes, Ruto hits 60 per cent nationally without breaking a sweat.
“Baba built this house. If he says share the key with Ruto, we listen,” shrugged 58-year-old Mama Sarah, echoing a sentiment quietly gaining ground.
Whether that listening turns into votes remains the Sh10billion question. For now, Ruto is set to inherit ODM zones. The 2027 Star forecast has turned political conversation from “if” to “when”, leaving rivals racing against a clock that suddenly feels two years shorter.
