Manchester City could face a massive 40-60 point deduction that would send them crashing out of the Premier League if found guilty on the new 115 financial charges, according to fresh expert warnings that have fans on edge.
Football finance specialist Kieran Maguire dropped the bombshell during a recent chat on The Overlap Fan Debate. He broke it down simply: past punishments for clubs like Everton and Nottingham Forest saw six- and four-point hits for single breaches over shorter periods.
City’s case stretches across nine years with way more accusations, so the math points to something much bigger. “Add a zero to those earlier deductions,” Maguire said, landing on a range of 40 to 60 points as the logical outcome if the serious stuff sticks.
The charges date back to February 2023, when the Premier League hit City with 115 alleged breaches of financial rules between 2009 and 2018. They cover everything from inaccurate financial info to lack of cooperation during probes.
City have denied it all from day one, insisting they have solid evidence to clear their name. The independent hearing wrapped up in December 2024 after three long months, but no verdict has come yet. That delay keeps everyone guessing and talking.
Right now City sit mid-table in the current season – around 56 points with games left. A 40-point slap would drop them into negative territory fast. Push it to 60, and even winning every remaining match might leave them on just 29 points total.
No team has ever stayed up with a tally that low. It would mean automatic relegation to the Championship in practice, even if the rules don’t allow direct demotion to League One or below since those fall under different bodies.
Maguire made clear the Premier League can’t force a full relegation to the lower leagues without EFL involvement. So points deduction becomes the main weapon.
He also floated a big fine if non-cooperation gets proven, similar to what happened in City’s old UEFA case where a two-year ban got overturned on appeal. But the real damage, he says, would come from docking points – enough to make a statement and keep consistency with how Everton and Forest got treated.
Fans across social media lit up the moment the comments spread. City supporters call it unfair speculation and point to the club’s clean record in other fights.
Rivals from Arsenal, Liverpool, and beyond share memes and hot takes, joking about title races flipping overnight or City tumbling down the table. One popular post asked for the deduction to wait until after this season ends so no one cries foul about stolen glory. Others wonder if the long wait means the case might fizzle or end in a slap on the wrist.
The whole saga has dragged on for years now. It started with leaks about dodgy sponsorships and hidden payments, then exploded into this full-blown legal battle.
City keep winning on the pitch under Pep Guardiola – multiple titles, cups, and European runs – which makes the off-field drama feel even more intense. If a heavy penalty lands mid-season or next, it could shake the entire league. Teams fighting relegation would get a lifeline, while top spots might open up fast.
Experts keep stressing that nothing is certain until the panel rules. City could walk away with fines only, or lighter sanctions if many charges fail. But Maguire’s take has put the worst-case scenario front and center again. With the season heating up and no sign of a decision soon, the uncertainty hangs over every match City play.
Premier League bosses want this wrapped up clean to protect the competition’s image. City argue the process has been unfair and drawn out. Whatever happens, the outcome will rewrite stories for one of English football’s biggest clubs. For now, everyone waits – players, fans, rivals – while talk of 40 to 60 points keeps swirling and the threat of a historic fall looms large.
